國浩視點 | 行到水窮處,坐看雲起時——2023年房地產行業及其法律服務的趨勢展望

近年來,政府對於房地產行業的調控政策收緊與疫情防控之影響疊加,加上世界範圍內的產業鏈重整,對住宅、辦公、商業等傳統房地產領域造成了廣泛衝擊,2022年末,中國人民銀行與中國銀行保險監督管理委員會共同發佈《關於做好當前金融支持房地產市場平穩健康發展工作的通知》(銀髮〔2022〕254號),針對性地列舉了16條協調和鼓勵地方政府、金融機構等主體共同促進房地產市場穩定、良性發展的舉措(下稱「金融十六條」),重新肯定了房地產行業仍是穩經濟、促發展的重要參與者。在這些宏觀背景下,地產公司對危機的處理、對合規的強調、對政策的把握,讓其與法律服務者建立起更加緊密的聯結,律所可協助地產行業更好地迎接新時期的挑戰。

Over the past few years, governments’ tightened administration on the real estate sector combining with the impact of pandemic controls, and the global-wide restructure of industrial chains together have caused a widespread impact on the traditional real estate realms including residential, office, and commercial properties. At the end of 2022, the People’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued the Notice on Maintaining Current Financial Support for the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market (the “Notice”), listing 16 measures to coordinate and encourage local governments, financial institutions and other entities to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, and reiterating the critical importance of the real estate sector as a major economy stabilizer and development booster. With this macro perspective, real estate developers are forging a stronger bond with legal professionals to handle the crises, enhance compliance, and grasp the opportunities in policies. Law firms can serve the real estate business to better manage the challenges of the new era.

首先,新的地產調控政策指引行業逐步進入新的發展階段,對行業趨勢的把握需基於對政策的學習和了解。

Firstly, the latest real estate administration policies have guided the real estate industry to gradually enter a new stage of development, and the grasp of the industry trends shall be based on the study and understanding of the policies.

一、房地產政策調整

Ⅰ.The Switch of Real Estate Administration Policies

相較於此前驅嚴的監管,2022年地產金融監管政策總體以「糾偏」、「紓困」等為主。自2022年3月開始,各部委開始積極出臺對市場有利的政策,推動房地產行業轉變發展方式,鼓勵金融機構穩妥有序開展併購貸款,重點支持優質房企兼併收購困難房企優質項目,促進房地產業良性循環和健康發展。同時,房地產融資政策漸進鬆綁,出臺了併購貸不再計入「三道紅線」、保租房貸款不納入房地產貸款集中度管理等政策措施。

Compared with the previous tightened regulation, the real estate finance regulatory policies in 2022 generally focus on “rectification of deviation” and “bailout”. Since March 2022, various ministries have started to actively introduce market-friendly policies to promote the transformation of the real estate industry, to encourage financial institutions to grant M&A loans in a steady and orderly manner, to focus on supporting high-quality real estate developers to merge and acquire high-quality projects of troubled real estate developers, and to promote the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry. At the same time, real estate financing policies have been progressively loosened, with the introduction of policies such as M&A loans no longer being counted into the “three red lines” and affordable rental housing loans not being included in the administration of real estate loan concentrations.

進入11月,監管對房企融資的態度進一步轉變,通過金融十六條的出臺,糾偏過度緊縮的涉房信貸和金融管理政策,從保持房地產融資平穩有序、積極配合做好受困房地產企業風險處置、階段性調整部分金融管理政策、加大住房租賃金融支持力度等六個方面詳細闡述金融應如何幫助房地產實現「軟著陸」。2022年12月15日,國務院副總理劉鶴在公開場合上發表書面致辭,指出房地產是國民經濟的支柱產業,針對當前出現的下行風險,已出臺一些政策,正在考慮新的舉措,努力改善行業的資產負債狀況,引導市場預期和信心回暖。

Since November 2022, the regulatory attitude towards the financing of real estate developers has further changed. The introduction of the Notice rectified the over-tight housing-related credit and financial administration policies, elaborated in detail how the finance sector shall help real estate achieve a “soft landing” through six aspects including maintaining the stable and orderly real estate financing, assisting in the risk disposal of distressed real estate developers, phased adjusting of partial financial administration policies and strengthening financial support for housing rental industry. On 15 December 2022, the Vice Premier of the PRC Liu He delivered a written message in public, pointing out that real estate industry is a pillar industry of the national economy of China, and that in response to the downside risks that have emerged, several policies have been introduced and new initiatives are being considered to improve the balance sheet of the industry and to guide market expectations and confidence to rebound.

在政策逐步放寬的影響下,有理由相信,市場表現將較過去一年有所回升。但是,房地產「高負債、高槓杆、高週轉」的發展模式已難以為繼,亟需轉向以租賃、輕資產發展、盤活存量、產業地產等新發展模式。後續,這些領域或會得到政策的更多支持,房企應在這些領域尋找新機會,實現高質量發展。

With the gradual easing of policies, we believe that market performance will pick up compared to the past year. However, the development model of “high debt, high leverage and high turnover” in real estate industry is no longer sustainable, and it is urgent to shift to new development models such as leasing, asset-light development, inventory revitalization and industrial real estate. In the future, these sectors may receive more policy support, and real estate developers should seek new opportunities in these realms to achieve high-quality development.

地產行業調整週期中,傳統地產增量不足,但對存量物業的盤活、更新、及糾紛解決成為重要主題,該等業務不僅要求律師擁有領先的專業研究能力,也對律師在地產行業的經驗積累和洞察能力提出了更高的要求。具體而言:

In an economic adjustment cycle of the real estate sector, the traditional sectors witness an insufficient quantity of new builds, while the revitalization, renewal, and dispute resolution around the existing inventory properties are brought into the limelight, all of which demand from legal professionals a defter hand to carry out in-depth professional research and a far superior mind with rich sector-specific experience and insight.To be more specific:

二、困境地產公司紓困

Ⅱ.Bailout of Distressed Real Estate Developers

宏觀政策、疫情影響及工業產業鏈轉移等原因,導致房地產企業經營環境變化,讓不少房企陷入經營困難,乃至許多排名前列的大型房地產企業也頻繁出現債務違約事件,中小房企的處境則更為艱難,即便近期政策轉暖,但仍會有不少需要債務重組,乃至發生破產重整的情況。法律服務跟隨市場形勢的轉變,由之前的助力地產投資、土地交易、收購項目,轉向協助地產公司以各種途徑獲取融資、不良資產處置、破產重組,及服務有實力的公司選擇併購困境中的地產企業及精選的地產項目。盤活陷入困境的公司與資產更需要複雜問題的解決能力,以協助各方盡力尋找多方獲益的價值點;與增量市場較為流程化的業務不同,各個特殊機會投資中的特質差異萬千,也更加需要操盤人和法律服務者基於以往的專業積累而具備的風險識別和應變能力。

Macroeconomic policies, COVID-19 pandemic, and industrial chain transfer have joined forces to transform the commercial atmosphere surrounding real estate developers, with a number of developers being sucked into operational hardship. Even top large real estate developers, including Evergrande and Sunac China, have frequently defaulted on their debts, while the small and medium-sized developers find themselves in more dire straits. Though with the recent policies turnaround, many of them would still require debt restructuring or even bankruptcy reorganization. In response to market changes, legal services have shifted from providing support for real estate investments, land transactions, and acquisition deals to assisting real estate developers in obtaining financing through multifarious channels, disposing of non-performing assets, undergoing bankruptcy, and restructuring as well as in providing services to robust developers in their purchase of troubled developers and select properties. The ability to combat complicated problems is needed more than ever to revitalize distressed companies and assets so as to help unlock values that benefit more than one party. Unlike the new builds market, where business practice is relatively standardized, distressed investment opportunity is peculiar and one of a kind, setting a higher bar for realty operators and legal professionals to identify and respond to risks based on their accumulated expertise.

三、城市更新機遇

Ⅲ.Urban Renewal Opportunities

「十四五」規劃明確提出,「加快推進城市更新,改造提升老舊小區、老舊廠區、老舊街區和城中村等存量片區功能,推進老舊樓宇改造」,此後,北京、上海、重慶等地紛紛出臺了配套的政策。國家統計局發佈的資料顯示,2022年末我國城鎮化率水平為65.22%,根據住建部專家的觀點,「十四五」期間我國城鎮化率水平預計處於65%-70%區間,城鎮化速度逐步遞減,在此背景下,新時期的城市更新將有別於過去的「三舊改造」,不再是大拆大建大搬遷的模式,而是基於存量、強調以人為核心的「高質量發展」,諸如智慧城市、生態城市等領域都將是未來開啟十萬億級投資規模的重點方向,也是法律服務將要支持的熱點領域。

China in the 14th Five-Year Plan has made plain its aim to “accelerate urban renewal by redeveloping and upgrading the functions of old residential areas, old factory areas, old neighborhoods, and urban villages, among other idle zones, and by promoting the renovation of old buildings”. Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, and other cities have since lined up to introduce implementing policies. Figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics of the PRC indicate that the urbanization rate of China has stood at 65.22% at the end of 2022. According to the experts from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the urbanization rate is projected to climb to the range of 65% to 70% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period but at a gradually reducing pace. As such, urban renewal in the new era, in contrast to the “Three-old Renovation” in the past, will be veering from large-scale demolition, construction, and relocation to “high-quality growth” focusing on the existing inventories with a human-oriented emphasis. In the years to come, smart cities, eco-cities, and the like will be a key destination for investments worth up to tens of trillions Renminbi, to be accompanied by an influx of legal services that support those investments.

四、地產相關的爭議解決

Ⅳ.Real Estate-Related Dispute Resolution

行業下行週期中,地產糾紛湧現,結合我們的業務經驗並參考北京仲裁委員會的觀察,近年來房地產爭議主要有以下特點:一是由於房價下跌導致的買受人房貸斷供、逾期的違約案件增多,法拍房數量激增;二是因房企降本增效導致的房屋質量問題和違規改造問題增加;三是由於市場下行,導致房企之間的合作開發爭議案件增加;四是由於經濟下行疊加過去疫情防控影響,商業地產領域的違約案件增加;五是受困流動性危機的房企不斷增多,導致房企與施工企業、材料供應商、金融機構之間的糾紛也不斷增多。為更好地回應增加的訴訟風險,地產企業需將應對措施提前,在業務開展時即應關注到潛在風險點,更積極地建立合規、風控屏障,才能有效控制後續訴訟成本。

In a downcycle of the sector, real estate-related disputes continue to spring up one after another. Combining our practical experiences and referring to the observations of the Beijing Arbitration Commission, the main features of real estate-related disputes in recent years are as follows. Firstly, as a result of the falling house price, there has been an increase in the number of default cases where buyers’ mortgage payments are cut off or overdue, and the number of foreclosures has also surged. Secondly, the quality issues and illegal renovation issues of properties has deteriorated due to the cost reduction of real estate developers. Thirdly, the market downturn has exacerbated the disputes between real estate developers over their cooperation in project development. Fourthly, due to the economic downturn overlaid with the previous pandemic prevention, the default cases in the commercial real estate sector have been more than ever. Fifthly, the number of real estate developers suffering from liquidity crises has been increasing, aggravating the disputes between real estate developers and construction companies, material suppliers and financial institutions. In an effort to better tackle escalating litigation risks, real estate developers ought to work out preventative measures beforehand, heeding the potential risks once the business is started, and establishing compliance and risk management programs in a more proactive manner to effectively mitigate the costs and expenses arising out of future lawsuits.

此外,新的經濟增長點及新的監管趨勢推動了新業務板塊的形成和發展,包括網際網路資料中心(IDC)在內的新基建以及反壟斷監管收緊帶來的合規業務是其中的代表。

Additionally, new areas of economic growth and new trends in government regulation are cultivating the formation and evolution of new businesses, exemplified by new infrastructure including internet data centers (IDC) and legal compliance following tighter antitrust enforcement.

五、數字化轉型背景下,網際網路資料中心(IDC)持續成為風口

Ⅴ.IDC Continually as a Windfall for Investment in the Context of Digital Transformation

過去三年的新冠疫情,使得智慧手機和網際網路的滲透率迅速提高,推動數字經濟的快速增長,中國成為全球最大的資料圈之一,夯實了網際網路資料中心在國內快速發展的基本面;圍繞著強化數字轉型的目標,國家發改委於2022年2月啟動「東數西算」,成為繼「南水北調」、「西電東送」、「西氣東輸」之後,又一個最佳化資源配置格局的國家工程;國家發改委在新聞發佈會上稱,預計「十四五」期間,大資料中心投資將以每年超過20%的速度增長,將帶動各方面投資超過3萬億。在市場、國家發展需求和政策利好帶動下,網際網路資料中心持續成為風口。網際網路資料中心作為重資產與高技術的交叉行業,同時對傳統的房地產、投融資、電信行業的業務能力,和新興的資料安全、節能減碳、ESG等領域的專業知識提出較高要求,形成了一個相對專門的行業領域,也對其法律服務團隊的專業知識的深度和廣度設立了門檻。

The pandemic in the past three years has led the smartphone and internet penetration rate to experience a meteoric rise, which fueled the galloping growth of the digital economy. China is set to become one of the world’s largest data hubs, further firming up the foundations for the high-speed buildout of IDC across the country. In February 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission of the PRC (NDRC), as a step toward the goal of reinforcing digital transformation, unveiled the “Eastern Data and Western Computing” project, another national endeavor to optimize resource allocation in addition to “South-to-North Water Diversion”, “West-to-East Power Transmission”, and “West-to-East Gas Transmission”. The NDRC forecasted in a press release that, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, there would be a surge in big data center investment at an annual rate exceeding 20%, which would stimulate investments across various industries and sectors beyond three trillion Renminbi in worth. Riding the tailwinds created by market developments, national needs, and encouraging policies, IDC will continue to be a windfall for investment. Sitting at the intersection of asset-heavy businesses and high-tech industries, IDC forms a relatively specialized sector which imposes stricter requirements for both capabilities in the traditional areas such as real estate, investment and financing, and telecom, as well as expertise in the emerging realms of data security, energy conservation and carbon reduction, ESG etc. Those requirements set the bar for the depth and breadth of expertise of IDC’s legal services teams.

六、產業園區需求上升

Ⅵ.Increasing Demand for Industrial Parks

隨著時代發展,不少老舊廠房和傳統工業園區逐漸不能達到產出目標也無法滿足新產業發展的需求,亟待盤活再利用。同時,為最佳化城市空間佈局,推動產業集聚發展與轉型升級,工業企業將逐步退城進園。因此,老舊工業園區的改造和新型產業園區的新建項目增加,特別是在東部地區和長江經濟帶,為培育先進製造業集群,當地新產業園區需求呈現量質齊升之態。對舊工業園區的改造有賴於對原有項目的妥善處理、對土地利用條件的評估、以及對新產業全生命週期的管理,法律服務者也緊密配合新的需求,提供相應法律服務。

As the world changes, many old factory buildings and traditional industrial parks are in urgent need of revitalization due to their inability to achieve their output targets and meet the demands of the new industries. Meanwhile, for the purpose of optimizing the urban spatial layout, promoting the concentrated development and transformation and upgrading of industries, the industrial enterprises will gradually relocate from urban areas to suburban industrial parks. Hence, there is an increase in the renovation of old industrial parks and construction of new type industrial parks, especially in the eastern region and the Yangtze River Economic Zone, where in the cause of cultivating advanced manufacturing clusters, the demand for new type industrial parks is increasing in both quantity and quality. The renovation of old industrial parks depends on the proper handling of the original projects, the evaluation of the land use conditions and the management of the whole life cycle of the new industries. Legal professionals should also closely adapt to the new demands and act in response to such changes with the upgraded legal services.

七、反壟斷法的修訂對地產投資法律業務的影響

Ⅶ.Impact of the Amendment to the Anti-Monopoly Law on Legal Practice in Real Estate Investment

房地產行業是競爭較為充分的行業,市場份額分散,長期以來並不被認為是反壟斷監管的重點領域,在房地產行業過往層出不窮的併購案件中,向反壟斷局提交經營者集中申報的項目並不多,因未申報而受到處罰的案例亦不多見。但隨著《反壟斷法修正案》於2022年8月1日的正式實施,不正當競爭的違法責任大幅增加,極大加強《反壟斷法》的威懾力,且在新法之下,競爭政策對市場經濟建設的重要性被強調到了新的高度,達到申報標準的地產項目若仍慣性地不進行申報,將暴露在更大的被糾察的可能性、以及更鉅額的處罰風險之中。另一方面,如果房企依據法律要求進行申報,鑑於地產項目被認定為壟斷的可能不大,更有可能通過快速的審查流程、並以相對較小的成本排除交易中受到監管處罰隱患,增加交易的確定性。因而,協助地產項目進行反壟斷申報的法律服務業務預計也將有顯著增加。

The real estate sector is generally deemed as an industry with relatively adequate competition and distributed market shares, and therefore not considered as the focus of anti-monopoly supervision for long. Among the numerous M&A transactions in the real estate sector in the past, only a few were declared to the Anti-monopoly Bureau for concentration of undertakings review, while cases where parties were penalized for unfulfillment of the duty to declare were rare. However, with the implementation of the Amendment to the Anti-Monopoly Law on August 1, 2022, the legal liability for violation of laws or regulation of unfair competition is aggravated significantly, greatly strengthening the deterrence of the Anti-Monopoly Law. The newly promulgated law has raised the importance of competition policy to a new level for the construction of the market economy. For a proposed M&A transaction in the real estate sector that falls into the scope of declaration under the new law, if the parties habitually fail to declare, such proposed transaction will be possibly exposed to greater risk of investigation than before and subject to a heftier fine. On the other hand, if the parties file a declaration in accordance with the law, it is more likely to eliminate the hidden risks of regulatory punishment in the transaction through a speedy investigation process with relatively lower costs meanwhile increasing the certainty of the transaction, given the small possibility of a real estate transaction being identified as monopolistic practice. Therefore, the legal services in assisting real estate enterprises in antitrust filings are expected to increase significantly.

最後,為拓寬社會投資渠道,基礎設施REITs將加速擴募,外商投資亦有放寬的呼聲,充裕的資金助力地產業築底並逐步走上穩定良性發展的軌道。

Lastly, in order to expand channels for private investors in the market, infrastructure REITs will accelerate the expansion of fundraising. The market also calls for easing the policies on foreign investors. With abundant funds, the real estate market will bottom out and gradually embark on the track of stable and sound development.

八、REITs進一步擴募

Ⅷ.Expanded Offering in REITs

基礎設施領域不動產投資信託基金(REITs)在2022年出臺了擴募規則,明確將進一步提高項目推薦、審核效率,鼓勵更多符合條件的基礎設施REITs項目的發行上市,並將保障性租賃住房、生態環保、產業園區、倉儲物流、新型基礎設施等資產列為基礎設施REITs發展的重點領域。2022年12月,中共中央、國務院印發了《擴大內需戰略規劃綱要(2022-2035年)》,進一步要求有序推動基礎設施REITs健康發展。可以預見,在政策的推動和市場的需求的促進下,基礎設施REITs將加速發展,以有效盤活存量資產,並促進形成存量資產和新增投資的良性循環。在這一過程中,法律服務者將為基礎設施REITs的發展保駕護航。

The rules for expanded offering in infrastructure-backed real estate investment trusts (REITs) have been issued in 2022, which make clear that the efficiency of project recommendation and review will be improved to encourage more qualified infrastructure REITs projects to be listed in the market. The rules further specify affordable rental housing, ecological and environmental protection, industrial parks, warehousing and logistics, new infrastructure project, and other assets as the key areas for development of the infrastructure REITs. In December 2022, the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party and the State Council issued the Outline of the Strategic Planning for Expanding Domestic Demand (2022-2035), further requiring the orderly promotion of the healthy development of infrastructure REITs. It is foreseeable that driven by the policy and market demand, the accelerated development of infrastructure REITs will effectively revitalize the existing assets and promote the virtuous cycle of existing assets and new investments. Throughout this process, legal professionals will shepherd the development of infrastructure REITs.

九、外商房地產投資的新機會

Ⅸ.New Opportunities for Foreign Investors in Real Estate Investment

外商投資房地產的政策已逐步放寬,房地產行業現未被列在市場準入的負面清單,可享受國民待遇;更新後的房地產開發資質申辦條件對外資十分友好,即便沒有開發項目也能申請開發資質;雖然房地產企業借外債還存在限制,但亦有越來越多聲音呼籲放開,希望給外商房地產投資帶來更多利好。同時,在新經濟形勢下,順應以人為中心、提升城市化水平的需求,外資地產投資者可採用更加靈活的輕資產投資方式,通過提供高水平的運營管理服務、品牌價值等,增加投資的靈活性及提高投資的回報率。轉型過程中,法律服務者可以協助外商地產投資者更好地把控新業務的合規要點,制定更加完善的投資策略。

The previous strict policies applicable to foreign investors in real estate have been gradually eased. The real estate sector is not named on China’s Negative List for Foreign Investment Access and foreign real estate investors are entitled to national treatment. The updated criteria of the application for developer qualification are very friendly to foreign investors, which allows the investors with no project in process to file the application. Although there are still restrictions on real estate enterprises in foreign debts borrowing, the voices calling for opening-up are getting stronger with the hope of bringing more benefits to foreign real estate investors. At the same time, in the new economic climate, in line with the idea of human-oriented development and the need to enhance the level of urbanization, foreign real estate investors can adopt a more flexible, asset-light investment strategy by providing high-caliber operation management services and brand value, etc., to increase the flexibility in and to improve the return on their investments. In the process of such transition, legal professionals can assist foreign real estate investors to effectively grasp the key compliance issues of the new businesses and formulate more sophisticated investment strategies.

【 特別聲明:本篇文章所闡述和說明的觀點僅代表作者本人意見,僅供參考和交流,不代表本所或其律師出具的任何形式之法律意見或建議。】

作者簡介

杜玉松

杜玉松

國浩北京管理合夥人

業務領域:不動產投資與併購、公司併購重組等

郵箱:duyusong@grandall.com.cn

廖理琳

廖理琳

國浩北京顧問

業務領域:境內外房地產開發、公司併購重組等

郵箱:liaolilin@grandall.com.cn

(國浩北京律師方昇權、孫焓、嚴旻陽對本文亦有幫助。)

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